May 19, 2013; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker (9) drives to the basket during the second quarter as Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) defends in game one of the Western Conference finals of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday featured the first game of the Western Conference Finals and the San Antonio Spurs won in convincing fashion over the Memphis Grizzlies. Here’s a look at the game.

Spurs win series opener over Grizzlies, 105-83
Buoyed by a big first quarter, the San Antonio Spurs raced out to a 1-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals with a comfortable 105-83 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.

San Antonio outscored Memphis 31-14 in that first period behind led by Tony Parker. Parker had eight of his team-high 20 points in that quarter and also finished the game with nine assists. Memphis shot well in the quarter, but could stop the Spurs’ offense. Four turnovers didn’t help the Grizzlies as well.

Despite the slow start, Memphis still came back to make a game of it. In the third quarter, the Grizzlies pulled to within six. But San Antonio went on an 11-1 run and increased the gap significantly.

The Spurs emptied their bench with 13 players seeing at least five minutes of action. San Antonio had a big game despite not getting much from future Hall of Famer, Tim Duncan. Duncan pulled in a team-high ten rebounds, but shot only 3-9 from the field and finished with six points. Fortunately for the Spurs, they didn’t need him. In addition to Parker’s 20, four others also finished in double figures, including Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard, who combined for 34 points.

The reason for the big San Antonio advantage was from beyond the arc. The Grizzlies made a respectable 5-12 from three-point range, but San Antonio finished 14-29. Those 14 three-pointers accounted for a whopping 40% of the Spurs’ total points and set a franchise record for the most they’ve ever had in the postseason.

The Grizzlies had some players show up, but their starting forwards both had games to forget. Marc Gasol made sure the frontcourt had at least one strong performance with 15 points and seven rebounds, but Zach Randolph and Tayshaun Prince had games to forget. The duo was 3-13 from the field and finished with only eight points and eight rebounds.

San Antonio is off to a good start in the series, but don’t count out Memphis just yet.. The Grizzlies have lost both of their other series openers in the playoffs this year and still managed to advance. Despite the opening defeat, Memphis still has a chance to reach the NBA Finals.

If Memphis is going to compete, they’ll need their defense to step up. And allowing an NBA-best 89.3 points a game, the Grizzlies are clearly capable of doing that. Look for Memphis to step up the defensive intensity a bit in the next game and challenge more shots.

Game 2 will be Tuesday in San Antonio.

May 18, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers shooting guard Lance Stephenson (1) reacts in game six of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers won 106-99. Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

In Saturday night’s NBA Playoff action, the Indiana Pacers defeated the New York Knicks to move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. For the Knicks, it’s back to the drawing board after a disappointing postseason.

Pacers move onto Eastern Conference Finals with 106-99 win over Knicks
Putting the team on his shoulders, Knicks’ star Carmelo Anthony did all he could to avoid going home early. But even after 39 points and seven rebounds, it wasn’t quite enough as New York was eliminated from the postseason by Indiana after a 106-99 Pacers win. Anthony had a solid game, but Indiana proved to be too much down the stretch.

Ironically, it was a series of bad plays by Anthony that helped seal New York’s fate.

Leading 92-90, the forward had a shot blocked with about five minutes left in the game. After a Lance Stephenson layup tied the game, Anthony came back down the court on the next possession and the Pacers’ Paul George drew a charge against him. On the ensuing possession, Anthony had a bad pass, which led to another bucket by Stephenson. After trailing 92-90, the Pacers went on an 11-2 run to seize control.

Stephenson was the hero down the stretch for Indiana, scoring nine of those 11 points to clinch the game. He also added ten rebounds during the contest.

The Pacers also got some help from guard George Hill, who returned after suffering a concussion. Hill didn’t shoot particularly well, but had a good all-around game registering 12 points, five rebounds, and four assists, and a block.

A question mark for the team remains their bench. The Pacers’ reserves didn’t play many minutes, but they again didn’t contribute all that much. They weren’t needed on Saturday, but a problem could arise if the team gets into foul trouble or suffers an injury. Only four players (Tyler Hansbrough, Sam Young, Ian Mahinmi, and D.J. Augustin) have played regular minutes coming off the bench. If Indiana is forced to rely on one of their other reserves getting into a game, they could be in trouble.

The problem again for New York was their shooting. The Knicks made only 40% of their baskets against the defensive-minded Pacers. Indiana stymied New York’s players all postseason and did so again on Saturday. The starting backcourt of Raymond Felton and Pablo Prigioni was 2-13 from the field. Center Tyson Chandler was only 1-4. The backups were just as bad as the starters, shooting only 34%.

For the Knicks, it’s back to the drawing board after a frustrating postseason exit. The biggest question mark is what to do with All-Star Amar’e Stoudemire, who played sparingly upon his return.

With a big payday for a few more years and his injury struggles, he will be a difficult player to trade. But he’s too big of a talent to waste away on a bench (at least when he’s healthy), too. The Knicks will need to come up with a creative solution to that mess. Stoudemire played only six minutes on Saturday and scored two points.

Indiana now moves on to face Miami on Wednesday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Finals. The Heat eliminated Indiana last year in the semifinals.

May 16, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker (9, left) high-fives shooting guard Manu Ginobili (20) during the fourth quarter in game six of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Spurs defeated the Warriors 94-82. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Though the Miami Heat are ranked No.1 offensively and No.2 defensively as they make their way into the NBA Conference Finals, they no longer seem to be the indestructible behemoth they appeared to be some months ago. As the saying goes: the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Both San Antonio and the Memphis Grizzlies, in theory, have enough weapons in storage to take a run at the champs. And Miami has arguably had the easiest road to navigate to arrive at this juncture. Toss in that Dwyane Wade’s knee is taped over more than a crime scene, and the 2013 NBA Conference Finals feel more than just ceremony―enough competition remains to at least question their chances of repeating as world champions.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, here are the lineups, schedules, and predictions for this year’s Conference Finals.

Western Conference:

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)

Schedule (All Times Eastern):

Game 1 – Sun May 19, Memphis at San Antonio, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Game 2 – Tue May 21, Memphis at San Antonio, 9:00 p.m., ESPN

Game 3 – Sat May 25, San Antonio at Memphis, 9:00 p.m., ESPN

Game 4 – Mon May 27, San Antonio at Memphis, 9:00 p.m., ESPN

Game 5 – Thu May 29, Memphis at San Antonio, 9:00 p.m., ESPN (if necessary)

Game 6 – Sat May 31, San Antonio at Memphis, 9:00 p.m., ESPN, (if necessary)

Game 7  – Sun Jun 2, Memphis at San Antonio, 9:00 p.m., ESPN (if necessary)

NBA bandwagoners need not apply. The much anticipated Memphis-San Antonio standoff is pure diehard NBA-goer joy. A battle of small markets and large basketball IQs. Either, San Antonio’s samurai disciplined system, the winningest in modern sports tenure, prevails, or, Memphis’ vintage inside-out ball wins, further questioning if small ball should be the NBA’s preferred method of engagement.

The two teams last met in the playoffs in 2011, when the 8th-seeded Grizzlies team ousted San Antonio in six games. That Memphis team was also without Rudy Gay, but Manu Ginobili played with a broken arm and Tim Duncan with a nagging ankle injury. 2011’s Memphis squad also boasted Shane Battier, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young, and Greivis Vasquez who are no longer on the team. All four of those players made Memphis a strong perimeter unit, with the ability to open up the paint for Zach Randolph to throw down. With their current lineup, which is limited in perimeter shooting, the same won’t come as easily against San Antonio.

In that series, Tiago Splitter and Danny Green posted a total of 57 minutes of playing time. Two years later, they’re much more important to San Antonio’s success. Splitter will be a big body that can disrupt Randolph’s in-paint dominance. And Green can be charged with shutting down either Mike Conley or Jerryd Bayless.

During the regular season, the two squads split four games, with all four victories being achieved on the home court. So, homecourt advantage will be especially crucial in this series. On that front, San Antonio has the gain as most games will be played in San Antonio.

Though the big man tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will bruise the Spurs throughout all seven games, the Spurs have a larger range of offensive options. The Grizzlies were able to beat two high scoring teams in the Clippers and the Thunder, but will have a harder time against one who is as efficient as it is offensively capable.

There’s also little chance that Tony Parker plays as badly as he did in the 2011 series. During that time, he put up subpar-Tony Parker numbers of 19.7 PPG, 5.2 APG, and 2.7 RPG. This time around he’ll be closer to this year’s postseason numbers against Memphis, or, 25.5 PPG, 6.5 APG, and 2.5 RPG (per ESPN.com).

Outcome:

San Antonio Spurs 4-3 Memphis Grizzlies

May 16, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Indiana Pacers power forward David West (21) looks to pass the ball around New York Knicks small forward Iman Shumpert (21) during the second half in game five of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Knicks win 85-75. Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

There were no NBA Playoff games on Friday night, but Saturday’s contest is a big one as the New York Knicks will battle the Indiana Pacers in Game 6. Here’s a preview of tonight’s game as well as the pertinent scheduling information.

Game 6: New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers (Pacers lead 3-2)
Date: Saturday, May 18th
Time: 8:00 p.m.
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, IN)
TV: ESPN

New York hopes to stay alive against Indiana in Game 6
The New York Knicks came into their series as the favorite against the Indiana Pacers. But five games in, things haven’t gone to plan and the Knicks now find themselves on the brink of elimination.

Facing a 3-1 deficit in Game 5, New York stepped up with a big win at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. But now they need to travel and win on the road to force a Game 7. Simply put, that could be a tall order. The Knicks lost both of the previous playoff games in Indiana and also lost both regular season contests there. Anything is possible with a player like Carmelo Anthony, but New York hasn’t found playing in Indiana this year to be an easy task. Based on that, it’s no surprise that Indiana has been installed as the early favorite.

On the injury front, all eyes will be on Pacers point guard, George Hill. Hill suffered a concussion and needs to pass a test before he can play again. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be ready by the time game time rolls around.

Hill is an integral part to the team. He averaged 14 points per game in the regular season and has been even better in this series. In addition to scoring more than 17 points a contest, he’s also averaging nearly five rebounds and five assists. If he can’t play, look for more of D.J. Augustin in the lineup. But for his part, Indiana head coach isn’t commenting about his plans if Hill doesn’t suit up.

It would be wise for the Pacers to do all they can to win the game. They have beaten New York on the road in this series, but only once. Altogether, Indiana is only 1-4 in Madison Square Garden this year. The last thing they would want is to have to play there in a Game 7 with everything on the line.

If the Knicks are going to live to fight another day, All-Star Carmelo Anthony will likely need to give them another big game. Anthony hasn’t been bad in the team’s losses, but he’s been better in the victories. In the three New York defeats, he’s averaged 24 points, but shot only 37% from the field. In the two wins, Anthony has been significantly better, scoring 30 points a game shooting 46%. Even on an off night, he will produce. But if he’s on his game, the Knicks have a far better chance to win.

Another key to the game? Look to the bench. In Game 5, New York’s reserves outscored Indiana’s 35-10. The Pacers need to get more production from their backups and a similar effort will probably result in another loss.

Tune in to Game 6 on ESPN at 8:00 p.m.

Dec 30, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a secret formula for converting an injured fantasy football stud into a top-flight option: one part draft day discount on said superstar – in this case New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski – and one part replacement-level players with appealing weekly matchups.

Combine, shake, and presto: you’ve scored more fantasy tight ends points than anyone in your league.

Gronkowski, who has helped redefine the value of tight ends in fantasy football since 2011, isn’t just facing a fourth forearm surgery, but possibly back surgery after doctors gave the big man an MRI to examine disc issues that had caused him pain during the 2012 season, according to a USA Today report.

The MRI was scheduled after Gronkowski reported “chronic” back pain in recent days, NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport reported, adding that the back disc in question is not the same one that Gronkowski had surgically repaired in college.

Gronkowski was expected to miss about two and a half months with the fourth arm surgery, and early reports from various trusted beat writers say back surgery wouldn’t push his recovery timeline any further into August. These post-surgery timelines are subject to change – we’ve seen it again and again – but even if Gronkowski misses a game or three in 2013, you should do anything but cross him off your fantasy draft day list of must-haves.

This is the guy, after all, who scored the second-most fantasy points among tight ends in 2012, just seven points behind Jimmy Graham. And lest you forget, Gronkowski did this in 11 games, amassing 790 yards on 55 receptions on a measly 77 targets, 54 fewer than Graham. No other top-10 fantasy tight end played fewer than 15 games last season.

Gronkowski’s efficiency is the stuff of geeky fantasy legend: he averaged .44 fantasy points every time Tom Brady threw the football in his direction last season. That per-opportunity is anything but flukey, as Gronkowski posted and average of .43 points per target in 2011, when he led all tight ends by a giant margin.

The lesson, short and sweet: Gronkowski doesn’t need to play an entire season to be a value based drafting god among men. That’s why you’re still going to draft him.

Gronkowski’s average draft position has plummeted over the past few weeks — a predictable reaction to a guy whose body seems to be in need of repair. Drafted at 3.04 on April 20, Gronkowski has sunk to 3.12, and news of his impending back and arm surgeries are sure to put football’s best tight end into the mid-fourth round, maybe lower.

Even if the worst comes to fruition, and the Patriots are forced to concede that Gronkowski will miss, say, all of September, he’s well worth the fourth-round investment. I’ve already spelled out what he can do with a mere 11 games, but the proliferation of useable fantasy tight ends means you’d be able to let Gronk ride your bench while playing — streaming, like we do with defenses — tight ends with matchups against defenses that bleed fantasy production to the position.

Forty-seven tight ends posted top-12 fantasy numbers at least once in 2012. Even more useful, 25 tight ends had top-12 days four or more times. There are valuable tight end options available every week, and if you can secure one or two of these players while Gronkowski sits, you’re still going to dominate your league’s season-long tight end scoring.

Thirty-four tight ends were among the top-12 weekly fantasy options at least once during Gronkowski’s four-game absence in 2012, from Week 12-16. Many of these options were owned in the vast majority of leagues — even guys like Tony Scheffler were tough to find on the waiver wire in many 12-team formats. Still, tight ends including Dustin Keller, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finely, Brandon Myers, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jacob Tamme were top-12 tight ends once — sometimes  twice — while Gronkowski recovered from his arm injury. They were widely available to anyone looking for a substitute with a matchup against defenses that had proven generous to tight ends.

This requires a bit of a gambler’s mindset, and a straying away from the psychological comfort of plug-and-play options. It would be worth it though, as Gronkowski’s otherworldly fantasy football efficiency is reliable, and, dare I say, sustainable.

Read more on Tight Ends…

Finding a Late Round Tight End In 2013

Fantasy Football Keeper Watch: Tight Ends to Consider for 2013 and Beyond

Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers chief executive officer Mark Murphy. Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

So, yes, Packers fans, he’ll be back – we’ll have a Brett Favre day in the not-to-distant future where Favre’s number will be retired, he’ll be lauded and treated to a standing ovation, he’ll give a teary-eyed speech about how wonderful his time in Lambeau Field was, and the ugly ending to his career with Green Bay will be paved over and forgotten – water under the bridge.

None of this is surprising; it would have taken a miracle for Favre and the Packers to not reconcile one day. You’re talking about a true legend of the game and arguably the most storied franchise in the NFL – for history’s sake, if nothing else, this was going to happen sooner or later.

No, the only thing surprising is the fact that it’s “sooner”, considering the acrimonious history between Favre and the Packers.  Remember, this isn’t the first time they’ve considered having a Brett Favre day and retiring his number – the 2008 season opener was all lined up to see #4 be the sixth retired number in Packer history – but then, of course, came his wafting back and forth between retirement and unretirement, with the end result being the Packers deciding to try out that new Aaron Rodgers kid and shipping Favre to New York. Favre accused the Packers of pressuring him into deciding to retire, while the Packers questioned whether Favre, after deliberating and toying with the idea of retirement for multiple years even at that point, would even be committed to playing football. It was more of a The Decision than an “I’ll always be a…”

It’s reality in the NFL that a player ending his career with the team that drafted him is the exception, rather than the rule. For every Ray Lewis, there’s five Ed Reeds. Joe Montana was a Chief, Johnny Unitas a Charger and Joe Namath a Ram. It only has accelerated since the introduction of the Salary Cap – Brian Urlacher can’t find a home with Chicago, Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday left the Colts. So, simply the fact that Favre ended up in New York … and with rival Minnesota … shouldn’t be considered that surprising in the modern NFL.

No, it’s the ugliness of the divorce that was so surprising at the time. Even the legendary Montana v. Young rivalry in San Francisco – the gold standard for quarterback controversies, one that seemed destined to stand alone forever in terms of both quality of the players involved and animosity between them until Favre – Rodgers popped up – didn’t end up anywhere near where the Packers relationship ended. Favre said he was going to the Vikings to “stick it to Ted Thompson”.  He reportedly gave then-Lions GM Matt Millen tips on how to beat the Packers – though he flatly denied that.  His last words on an NFL football field were, reportedly, encouraging the Bears to “go beat the Packers” in a game that wasn’t even guaranteed to happen. Maybe if the 24 hour news cycle had been in full gear in 1993 in Kansas City – or, for that matter, available for Johnny U in San Diego in ’73 – we’d see these sorts of stories popping up about other legendary QB moves, but it feels like Favre, at least at the time, couldn’t let go of the idea that it was some sort of personal insult that the Packers moved on from him.

He’s been more reconciliatory recently, however – distance from the events and from the NFL have seemed to mellow Favre’s stance some.  He notably appeared with Aaron Rodgers at the NFL Honors Awards and had a (presumably scripted) awkward interaction on stage to great applause and laughter.  He has recently started saying the right things, too – an interview with Deion Sanders had him acknowledging that “the business part of it is it happens.  I’m not upset with that, I really am not.”  This all makes sense – as he steps further and further away from being an active player, and as his assured Hall of Fame entrance draws closer, the competitive desire – the desire to prove the Packers wrong for making the decision to move on – has to dampen, if only slightly, and the desire to wrap up his legacy in a neat package has to grow – again, if only slightly.  Favre has never been overly concerned with the off-field part of being an NFL star, always happier to be left alone on his farm in Hattiesburg, but it seems there has to be some part of him that would like to put all the fighting and bad blood behind him.

I hope it does happen – it’s all speculation and rumor right now, but it would just be weird for this gap between player and team to continue when they did so many great things together.  Time heals all wounds – even the most acrimonious breakups don’t last forever, at least in the sports world.  It’ll be a great moment when Favre returns to Lambeau, be it this year or the next, and hopefully, Favre, the Packers, and Green Bay’s fans can put the past five or six years behind them and honor the great times that were the Favre era.

Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann (16, right) is congratulated by second baseman Dan Uggla (26) for hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Uggla scored on the play. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

(C) Brian McCann $7,724 – In the words of ESPN’s Buster Olney, McCann is “just crushing the ball since being activated” and has an “OPS of about a billion”. While that might be a bit of a stretch, he’s as hot as just about any catcher right now.

(1B) Mitch Moreland $7,211 – After May 2^nd, Moreland was hitting just .250. Now, he’s 4 points shy of .300. Since the 2^nd, he’s had at least one hit in all but 2 games and also has 5 home runs.

(2B) Dustin Pedroia $7,405 – Over the last week, Pedroia is hitting a solid .478 and faces Vance Worley in Minnesota tonight, against whom he is 3-for-6.

(3B) Adrian Beltre $8,409 – Last night marked Beltre’s first hitless performance in 9 games, but he still managed an RBI and 2 runs. He’s also a career .357 hitter against tonight’s opposing pitcher, Rick Porcello.

Read More: SJN’s Fantasy Baseball Player Projections

(SS) Jean Segura $8,332 – Segura remains the best shortstop going, with 14 hits, 3 home runs, and 6 steals in the last 7 days. He’s also hitting a robust .386 on the road this year.

(OF) Jose Bautista $8,775 – Bautista has put up quite the numbers over the last 4 games. He has 2 hits in each of them, 2 home runs, and has scored 7 times. Sounds like someone’s heating up, to me.

(OF) Nelson Cruz $7,942 – Cruz marks the third Ranger in my lineup tonight. He has a home run in each of his last 2 games and 4 in his last 6. After the thrashing the Rangers put on Justin Verlander last night, I expect Texas to keep the bats going tonight and Cruz to be a part of it.

(OF) Gerardo Parra $7,526 – Parra continues to hit well, with 9 hits in his last 5 games. He’s also facing Miami’s Kevin Slowey, who is coming off of his worst performance of the season.

(U) Will Middlebrooks $4,898 – It hasn’t been a great sophomore season for Middlebrooks, but last night, he came up huge with a 2-out, 2-strike, bases clearing double in the top of the 9^th to give the Red Sox a 4-3 win over the Rays. It is that type of big hit that can restore a player’s confidence.

(SP) Hyun-Jin Ryu $13,957 – Ryu has been one of the few bright spots for the Dodgers this season. He has gone at least 6 innings in each of his 8 starts this season and has given up more than 3 runs only twice. Tonight, he faces a Braves team that has been struggling, hitting just .237 during the team’s current 10-17 slide.

(SP) Tony Cingrani $12,562 – The Cincinnati rookie has shown flashes of brilliance during his brief career and has posted a 2.89 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 5 starts. Tonight he gets a Philadelphia team hitting just .246 on the year.

(RP) Mariano Rivera $2,699 – The Yankees are riding a 2-game losing streak, but, when choosing a closer, it’s hard to argue against the best of all time, pitching for the team sitting atop the AL East.

(P) Jason Grilli $2,425 – Grilli’s Pirates are 7 games above .500 and are hosting the MLB-worst Houston Astros, which have won all of 5 games on the road. If there is a situation that could provide a surefire save opportunity, this may be it.

The assumption is that this will be a full time running back by committee — the kind that vexes fantasy owners — but what can we expect out the Packers rushing unit as a whole?

*Provided from www.teamrankings.com

Mike McCarthy is entering his eighth season as Packer head coach, and his sixth with Aaron Rodgers as his starting quarterback after two years with Brett Favre. As shown above, McCarthy’s west coast philosophy centers on the passing game, calling nearly 59 percent pass plays over his tenure.

Green Bay has ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts and rush percentage every year but one, the exception being 2008, coinciding with Rodgers first year as starting signal caller.

Opportunities are already at a premium for a lone Packers running back, but being attached to a pass heavy offense is not necessarily detrimental to a fantasy running back. A lack of scoring opportunities is troubling, however.

*www.pro-football-reference.com

*www.teamrankings.com

In seven years under McCarthy, Packers backs have scored fewer than nine combined rushing touchdowns in all but two seasons, only once with Rodgers at the helm. Only Ryan Grant in ’07 (8) and ’09 (11) exceeded more than five individual rushing scores.

Eddie Lacy works out during the Green Bay Packers rookie orientation weekend. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

They’ve also finished higher than 25th in rushing touchdown percentage as a team only once since Rodgers has taken over, even when you include the 18 rushing scores Rodgers has scored over that span.

In the outlier year of 2009, Grant produced 1,253 yards and 11 ground scores on 282 carries (receiving 75.4 percent of all running back carries that season). I don’t believe any owner with a share of the rookie combo is anticipating 17 attempts per game and nowhere close to a carry split of three out of four.

The mediocre talent pool of previous Green Bay running backs, other than Grant, is not the sole contributing factor for the lack of scoring though.

Teams use their most effective playmakers to put points on the board in the red zone. For the Packers, that player is, and will likely remain, Rodgers. In his career as a starting quarterback, Rodgers has thrown an insane ratio of 108 touchdowns to only two interceptions in the red zone. So not only is he better than effective, he’s trustworthy in securing points for the offense. That has been less-than-great news for Green Bay running backs over the years.

Despite having a top five scoring offense in four of the past five years, when the Packers reach the red zone, odds are they will rely on the passing game.

Red zone stats from footballguys.com RZ Look = carries+targets /team data from www.teamrankings.com

While those hoping Lacy will gobble up goal line carries need to be cautious about the expected lack of opportunities, so should those hoping that Franklin will get a boost in point per reception (PPR) formats. Rodgers pushes the ball down field to his playmakers in the passing attack — he doesn’t make a habit of dumping the ball to backs sneaking out of the backfield.

Brandon Jackson is the only back to catch more than 40 passes with Rodgers at the helm. In the five seasons with Rodgers as the team’s starter, only 16.9 percent of his completed passes have gone to backs.

Asking for one, let alone both players to emerge as a reliable fantasy commodity is unrealistic, barring a dramatic shift in how McCarthy and Rodgers use their running backs. Chase Stuart from Football Perspective examined similar  Lacy/Franklin pairings from prior drafts, pointing out that nearly none of the players have had a Year One fantasy impact regardless of the offense they were part of.

Don’t mistake this as an indictment on the talent of either player. It’s the opportunity for which we should remain wary over the next few months.

McCarthy is a smart offensive mind that will utilize both players to benefit Green Bay on the field. I expect an uptick in rushing as a team, but it’s hard to envision a staggering increase. Whether that translates into having a fantasy impact remains to be seen. If you’re investing in the Packers offense for 2013, I’d recommend staying with selections from the aerial attack until those changes are reflected on the field.

May 13, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics center fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) hits a solo home run off of Texas Rangers starting pitcher Justin Grimm (51, not pictured) during the third inning at O.co Coliseum. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Yoenis Cespedes: .204/.270/.435, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 18 R, 0 SB
Cespedes had a brilliant rookie campaign in 2012, putting up a .292/.356/.505 line with 23 HR, 82 RBI, 70 R, and 16 SB in 129 games. Slowed by an early season wrist injury this year, he is batting just .204, but even that number is deceptive. Cespedes has less games played than most thanks to the injury and is in a 3-for-30 slump over his last eight games which has dropped his average from a passable .244.

Eight games is a mere 1/20^th of the season so I wouldn’t worry too much, but don’t expect steals. After stealing 16 out of 20 opportunities last season, Cespedes has yet to swipe a single bag and has been caught three times. He remains on pace to put up close to 30 home runs and 80 RBI; now could be a great time to buy low on a guy who finished 10^th in MVP voting in his rookie season.

See SJN’s Fantasy Baseball Projected Stats

Fearless Projection: .282, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 70 R, 10 SB

Brett Lawrie: .204/.272/.369, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R

A former 40^th top prospect, Lawrie strikes me as a perfect example of a guy too inconsistent to be a reliable fantasy player. See Mike Moustakas also. In 2011, before being called up to the minors, Lawrie hit a healthy 18 home runs in just 73 games. After being called up, he hit another nine homers in just 43 games. I can see where the optimism comes from.

Now take 2011 out of the equation. In 2009, Lawrie had 13 home runs in 118 games. In 2010, he had just eight home runs in 135 games. In 2012, Lawrie spent a full season in the Majors but put up just 11 home runs in 125 games. Whatever Lawrie did in 2011 has not been the norm for him in the minors or the bigs.

He also had steals potential. In 2010, Lawrie stole 30 bases. He has not had a season with more than 13 steals since, putting up 13 last season and being caught stealing in his only attempt this year. I think last season’s 11 home run, 48 RBI, 73 R, 13 SB, .273 BA is closer to the reality than his 2011 season.

Fearless Projection: .270, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 65 R, 10 SB

Brandon Morrow: 1-2, 4.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 34 K/17 BB

Morrow had a breakout (half) season in 2012 as he went 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 108 K/41 BB. Was it really a breakout though? He simply got hurt before a second half which may have balanced out his season. This season, Morrow’s 4.69 ERA and 1.46 WHIP look a lot closer to the Morrow we know and I’d be willing to bet that he’s going to stay that way.

Coming into last season, Morrow had put up a 4.58 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over his previous three seasons. Even taking last season into account, Morrow has a career 4.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP as a starter. He’s just never been good at limiting baserunners or runs. His numbers should come down a bit, his 9.4 H/9 is higher than his usual 8.1-8.5 but they won’t come down much. His career 9.5 K/9 rate is deceptive too, over his last two seasons he has put up a 7.7 K/9. Time to lower those expectations.

Fearless Projection: 11-11, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K (assuming 160 IP)

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter of the NFC divisional round playoff game at Candlestick Park. Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, some QBs are at a disadvantage in this comparison – be it rookie QBs subject to the rookie salary cap that came into play a few years ago, quarterbacks who have broken out after accepting a smaller initial contract, or simply people who signed a few years ago – with the ever-escalating salary cap numbers, contract values should continue to rise unabated, and a contract signed four years ago could be shattered by one for a lesser player today. On the other side are quarterbacks who signed for an insane amount of money and have failed to live up to expectations – busts, flops, and the like. So, you can’t just go down the salary lists now and assume the same contracts would be given today.

So, as it’s the doldrums of the offseason, let’s entertain a hypothetical scenario – tomorrow, every NFL quarterback, from Aaron Rodgers down to Tim Tebow, will be cut loose, free of all salary cap implications or franchise tag possibilities, and put on the open market in a bidding war – the Jets seem to have gotten a head start on this. Who, in 2013, would get the highest contracts?

Some pointers – obviously, talent is the primary factor here, but we’re not just ranking quarterbacks from best to worst. Age comes into play; a quarterback like Peyton Manning is still better than a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick at this point, but Kaepernick has years and years ahead of him, while Manning does not. So, at least relative to their ‘true’ quality, Manning might not get as much as Kaepernick. Similarly, injuries – both the history of and the risk in the future – come into play. Even if Robert Griffin III hadn’t torn his ACL in the playoffs, his cavalier rushing style would have raised plenty of eyebrows and comparisons to other mobile quarterbacks who have broken down due to wear and tear. Finally, there are off-the-field considerations, both positive and negative – young exciting QBs like Cam Newton might sell more jerseys than a similarly talented though less flashy player, and players with a history of run-ins with the law will see a hit to their value, as well. These are secondary to on-field concerns, but they do exist.

Without further ado, here’s my rough guess at how the contracts would come down today – not giving monetary values, as it only takes one crazy owner to throw that out of whack, but the order, from largest total value to smallest.

1.       Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Yeah, the man who received the highest average per year contract in NFL history would repeat that honors, even competing against every other quarterback in the league – in fact, he’d probably have passed Flacco’s record for total contract value, which is why he’s number one.  He’s arguably the best QB in the NFL period at the moment, and his 2011 season was absolutely one for the history books.  All this, and he’s only 29 – the Packers have to be absolutely chuffed they have back-to-back hall of famers at the QB position.

2.       Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
No, Newton is not the second best quarterback in football, but teams aren’t paying for past production – they’re paying for future production, and there is no sub-25 QB in football as promising as Newton – including last year’s super rookies.  You can point out the lack of winning seasons, but the counter example is, well, the team around him in Carolina.  Yes, I’m projecting him better than he’s done so far, but look at how he ended 2012 – in his last seven games, Newton threw for 11 scores and only 2 interceptions, with another four touchdowns using his feet.  Youth means everything in the NFL, and I think Newton will hit a huge payday once he’s past his rookie contract. He’d get less per year than the next few names on this list, but he could easily get a 10-year deal.

3.       Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Five thousand yards for two straight seasons? 43 TDs in 2012?  Brees consistently puts up the greatest statistical lines in the NFL, and has never, ever missed a game due to injury – that’s a skill you can’t coach. He throws a few too many interceptions, but at this level, that’s just picking nits. The only reason he’s even this low is due to the fact that he’s 34 years old – a decade of difference is enough to bump Newton up above him, due to the compared length of contracts — but he’s got half a decade left of prime performance left in him.

4.       Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Still getting it done with no signs of slowing down, I’d argue Brady still is the best QB in the NFL, even at age 35. His injury history is fairly clear, too – the 2008 knee injury is, in retrospect, an outlier; a sort of freak accident that robbed him of a season but hasn’t played into his career since then. Early on in his rivalry with Peyton Manning, I felt Brady was overrated, due to the gaudy Super Bowl rings outshining his performance but, ironically, as his team has become less successful, Brady’s stepped up his game. If I had to have a QB lead me through a fourth quarter right now, there’s no one in the league I’d rather have than Brady.

5.       Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
A 23-year-old dynamo, rookie of the year, one of the most dynamic and exciting players to have hit the NFL in years, only number five?  It’s unfair timing for RGIII, as all focus has to be firmly on his injured ACL, and, on a more broad perspective, his dangerous play style – his fearlessness and headfirst style, while exciting to watch, put him in huge risk of injuries. I think that’s correctable, and if we ran this list next year, he’d be #1 or #2 – but until we see him bounce back from the injuries he suffered in the playoffs, he’s “only” #5.

6.       Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan’s the next in line for a $100 million contract, and rightfully so – he’s been everything the Falcons could have wanted to move on from the Michael Vick era and more.  Sure, he’s had his struggles in the postseason, but I point to small sample size – remember, people once thought Peyton Manning couldn’t get it done in the clutch, either. He’s improved his touchdown numbers each and every year he’s been in the league, and he’s still on the right side of 30.

7.       Eli Manning, New York Giants
Manning the Younger’s got the longest active starting streak for QBs, a great indicator for health (and some luck, as well).  He’s got two shiny Super Bowl rings that show he can get it done on the largest of stages.  He’s a cut below the top of this list in a pure talent sense, and though he still looks 12, he is in fact 32 years old, so he’s going to hit the downside of his career in the not-too-distant future.  Still, I’ll take him as my team’s QB any day of the week.

8.       Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
It’s a weird year when so many rookie QBs make a list like this, but 2012 seems destined to go down next to the ’83 QB  class as one of the greatest of all time – if you can make wild statements like that after only one season. The Colts were not as good as their record indicated last year, but you can’t hold that against Luck, who looked ready from the moment he stepped behind center.  Why is he below RGIII, despite the difference in injury risk?  Ball security – he had 23 turnovers to go with his 23 touchdowns. That’s a bit of a nitpick when you break the rookie record for passing yards, but at these heights, you pick a few nits.

9.       Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson’s immediate future might be the brightest of any of the three main Sophomore QBs – his team is a rung above both Indianapolis and Washington, even if they have to go through San Francisco to get anywhere.  He has possibly the greatest decision making ability of any of the three, and he runs better than Luck and is more durable than RGIII.  So why is he below those two?  Well, it’s only been one season, and there is a reason he slipped to the third round – physically, he’s not your typical QB.  That, uh, didn’t seem to matter at all last season, so he cracks the top 10 with ease.

10.   Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Stafford’s numbers always look good, but it seems he hasn’t made that next step that Detroit fans have been waiting for. After his great 2011 season, people were expecting him to make The Leap in 2012 … and it just didn’t really happen. Don’t get me wrong – he still nearly broke 5,000 yards — but his touchdown numbers halved, his interceptions went up, and his completion percentage went down.  It was still a solid year – and I expect him to rebound.  He’s got too much raw talent not to. Besides, he’s still only 25. Plenty of time.

Read More: Fantasy Football Ranking Tiers

11.   Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos – The aging great may only have a couple seasons left in him, but there are still few better in the game.

12.   Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers– Rivers has been headed in the wrong direction last year, but he’s still a four-time pro bowler, and I think he can get his turnover game back under control.

13.   Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Got too big of a contract extension, but made the right choice in waiting to get one – the bad QB market combined with his best ever season and a Super Bowl win made him millions.

14.   Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Consider this my Newton of the teens – a player a little higher than others would have him because I just happen to expect big things in the immediate future.

15.   Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Always takes a pounding, and you wonder how much longer he’ll be able to play at high levels before his body breaks down.

16.   Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals – Lost in the shuffle of young QBs, I actually like Dalton’s game a lot, though I wonder how much of it is having AJ Green to throw to.

17.   Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Another player who benefited from the bad QB crop of 2013, but his contract number was insane.

18.   Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers – Love him, love him, love him – but he’s only started ten games.  Let’s wait until he has an entire season on film for defensive coordinators to look over before declaring him the successor to Montana and Young.

19.   Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – I used to be a bigger fan of Schaub, but I see him benefitting more from Arian Foster and his D than he adds to the team.  Add in his late season slump last season, and I’m not as impressed as I could be

20.   Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – I’m excited to see what he does under Marc Trestman, but until I see it, I’m not shelling out big bucks for it.

And, without comment, the rest of my top-32
21.   Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
22.   Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
23.   Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
24.   Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
25.   Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
26.   Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
27.   Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings
28.   Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
29.   Ryan Fitzpatrick, ex-Buffalo Bills
30.   Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
31.   Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
32.   Nick Foles, Philadlphia Eagles

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) at bat in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Royals defeated the Orioles 6-2. Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Buy:

Dayan Viciedo: Strong Buy. I continue to include him in just about every article because Viciedo is arguably the most under-owned hitter in fantasy right now. Fully recovered from his earlier injury, Viciedo now has a .288 BA, four home runs, and 11 runs batted in through 19 games with two of those homers coming in his last two games. This guy hits home runs and will likely match his 25 homers from last year, there’s no reason to leave a 24-year-old power hitting outfielder out there for the competition.

Lorenzo Cain: Solid Buy. Everyone was hoping for big things from Cain this season and he’s gotten it going, adding six runs batted in, two steals, and four runs in his last four games. On the season he is batting a very good looking .323 with 22 RBI, 21 R, and six steals. While he only has one home run he looks like a good candidate to help in each of the other four categories.

Kenley Jansen: Speculative Buy. While it’s not official, the inevitable return to the closer role for Jansen seems likely with Brandon League struggling. Jansen is not simply a good pickup because he’s likely sliding into the closer role, he puts up crazy numbers every season. His 2.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 are right along his career average of 2.21 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9. He’s going to be an Aroldis Chapman-like help in every category, not just saves.

Ubaldo Jimenez: Cautious Buy. The last time I stupidly wrote it might be worth taking a shot at Ubaldo he gave up seven runs in back-to-back games. I’m stupidly writing it again but with just three runs allowed vs. 16 strikeouts over his last two games it’s hard not to wonder what he can do over a full season. Taking away the 14 runs he gave up in early April to the Yanks and Boston, he’s only given up eight runs in 29 innings while putting up a very strong 8.8 K/9. Even with those starts, his WHIP is a passable 1.20 as he’s only giving up 6.6 H/9. It’s dangerous but he may be worth taking a shot on.

Jorge De La Rosa: Solid Buy. Jorge continues to perform and with seven strikeouts in a scoreless outing against the Cards he becomes an even more intriguing pickup. The strikeouts likely won’t return to his career average of 7.8/9 (currently 5.6/9) but he hasn’t given up a single run in four of his eight starts this season and has given up more than three runs just twice. He’s keeping the ball in the park and giving up very few baserunners when at his best. While picking up Ubaldo is risky, De La Rosa is a low-4.00 ERA pitcher at worst so there’s plenty upside to little downside.

Sell:

Phil Hughes/Ryan Vogelsong: If you added their ERAs, you’d be pretty close to 14.00. With both pitchers giving up about 2 HR/9 and about 12 H/9, there just isn’t enough potential reward in keeping either of them. Vogelsong is liable to lose his job and Hughes would be too if the Yankees had anyone else remotely worth plugging in. Just cut your losses and pick up Jorge De La Rosa.

Yuniesky Betancourt: He was picked up in most leagues after posting a .279 BA, seven home runs, and 22 RBI in his first 25 games. In 12 games since, he is batting just .156 with one home run and two runs batted in. He’s a 15 home run guy at best and with eight in the books he simply has a diminished value the rest of the season.

Scott Kazmir: He had a nice little stretch, giving up two runs or less to Kansas City, Minnesota, and Oakland but count me off the Kazmir bandwagon. While I appreciate a 9.9 K/9 rate as much as the next guy, the injuries and lack of a sub-4.90 ERA since 2008 simply don’t make for a reliable fantasy pickup. If you really need strikeouts that badly I guess he’s an option but expect your ERA (5.33 on the season) and WHIP (1.46 on the season, 1.41 over his career) to suffer.

Travis Hafner: This is what we call the normalization period for Travis Hafner. Even Hafner at his best could not sustain his six home runs and .309 BA through 19 games pace. Since April 27, Hafner is batting just .195 with no home runs and four RBI. As a guy who hasn’t hit more than 16 home runs since 2007, I don’t see how he will top that number in 2013.

Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa has not fit into the closer job well, giving up a run in each of his last two games and being tagged with the loss last Saturday. He hasn’t pitched since and with Andrew Bailey slated to return by Monday you may as well just drop him and clear a roster spot.

May 16, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry (30) congratulates San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker (9) after game six of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Spurs defeated the Warriors 94-82. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA Playoffs continued with two more semifinals contests on Thursday. In the east, the New York Knicks stayed alive with a win against the Indiana Pacers. In the west, the San Antonio Spurs eliminated the Golden State Warriors. Here’s a breakdown of both games.

New York closes series gap with 85-75 win over Indiana
The New York Knicks fought off elimination with an 85-75 win over the Indiana Pacers in the Garden on Thursday night. The Knicks won the game behind a 28-point six-rebound effort from Carmelo Anthony.

New York didn’t overwhelm Indiana – rather, they built a lead slowly and steadily. They led by four at the end of the first quarter, built it to six by halftime, and heading into the fourth quarter, extended it to ten. Indiana threatened several times, but never led in the game.

The Pacers couldn’t get much going on a night when they had a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Indiana scored fewer than 20 points in three of the four quarters and had only 34 at halftime. And Indiana was plagued with not only poor shooting, but also turnovers. The Pacers suffered 19 on the night – nearly twice as many as the Knicks’ ten.

Another key factor was the bench play. Indiana got only ten points from their reserves while the Knicks scored 35, led by 13 each from J.R. Smith and Chris Copeland. Indiana gave 24 minutes to forwards Tyler Hansbrough and Sam Young, but the pair came up scoreless.

The Pacers were led by forwards Paul George and David West, who combined for 40 points and 16 rebounds.

One thing to watch is the continued use of All-Star Amar’e Stoudemire. The forward has played only sparingly off the bench after returning from injury and did so again on Thursday with only seven minutes. New York still has a way to go to come back in this series, but if they’re able to get by the Pacers, Stoudemire will certainly be needed against the Miami Heat. It will be interesting to see how much he’s used should they find a way to advance.

Next up is Game 6 on Saturday in Indiana.

Spurs eliminate Warriors with 94-82 victory
The San Antonio Spurs got past a sluggish start in their series with the Golden State Warriors to finish strong, culminating with a 94-82 Game 6 win.

Golden State’s backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson didn’t shoot all that well, but still contributed 32 points. The Warriors’ big problem was with their frontcourt. Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli rebounded well, but scored only five points. Even Harrison Barnes, who was averaging nearly 20 points a game in the series, provided only nine.

San Antonio, meanwhile, ran on all cylinders. All five starters scored in double figures led by Tim Duncan’s 19, and Kawhi Leonard added ten rebounds. The Spurs’ bench also produced. They were outscored by the Warriors’ reserves, but had more rebounds and assists. San Antonio got a nice performance out of Manu Ginobili with five points, 11 assists, and six rebounds.

Golden State is surely disappointed with the way things turned out – especially since they nearly won the first two games from San Antonio. But it’s a team with a bright future with a great young nucleus of Curry, Thompson, and Barnes. Once the team gets David Lee healthy, a long playoff run wouldn’t be surprising.

The Spurs will make another trip to the Conference finals with Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday.